US Foreign Policy

"America's Midlife Crisis: The Future of a Troubled Superpower"

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 15:31:22 -0400

Middle East Institute is honored to host Gary Weaver and Adam Mendelson, Managing Editor of The Middle East Journal, to discuss their new book, "America's Midlife Crisis: The Future of a Troubled Superpower."

"Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East"

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 14:46:33 -0400

MEI is honored to host Thomas W. Lippman, MEI Adjunct Scholar to discuss his new book, "Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East."

"A Path Out of the Desert: A Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East"

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 01:47:43 -0400

MEI is honored to host Kenneth Pollack, to discuss his new book,
"A Path Out of the Desert: A Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East."

Kenneth M. Pollack is the director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. From 1995 to 1996 and from 1999 to 2001, he served as director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, where he was the principal working-level official responsible for implementation of U.S. policy toward Iraq, Iran, and the states of the Arabian Peninsula. Prior to his time in the Clinton administration, he spent seven years in the CIA as a Persian Gulf military analyst. He is the author of The Threatening Storm, The Persian Puzzle, Arabs at War, and Things Fall Apart. He lives in Washington, D.C.

"The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq"

Thu, 4 Sep 2008 18:05:28 -0400

Middle East Institute is honored to host Bing West, to discuss his new book, "The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq."

"Your Government Failed You"

Tue, 1 Jul 2008 12:01:57 -0400

The Middle East Institute is honored to host Richard Clarke, new Member of the MEI Board of Governors, to present his new book, "Your Government Failed You: Breaking the Cycle of National Security Disasters."

Richard A. Clarke began his career in the Office of the Secretary of Defense in 1973. He was a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence in the Reagan Administration. The Senate confirmed him as Assistant Secretary of State for Politico-Military Affairs in the George H.W. Bush Administration. He served in the White House for both presidents Bush and for President Clinton, who appointed him as National Coordinator for Security and Counter-Terrorism. He now teaches a Harvard’s Kennedy School, consults for ABC News, and is Chairman of Good Harbor Consulting.

The Situation in Iraq (Updated)

Wed, 13 Feb 2008 14:11:11 -0500

Middle East Institute is honored to host Ambassador David Satterfield to give an update on the situation in Iraq following the President and Secretary of State's trip to the Middle East region, including provincial and national leadership, and the diplomatic activities on a regional level.

Annual Conference Keynote Address

Thu, 1 Nov 2007 13:03:25 -0400

Mr. Clarke discussed the five myths he said are circulating around Washington regarding current US relations with the Middle East.

Pakistan-U.S. Relations and the War on Terrorism

Wed, 3 Oct 2007 13:03:52 -0400

Zamir Akram, Foreign Policy Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan, delivered remarks at the Middle East Institute regarding relations between Pakistan and the United States on the War on Terror. His comments covered a brief history of the relations between the two countries, emphasizing a “trust deficit” that has developed over the past 30 years. According to Akram, the future of this relationship should lie in a more substance-based strategic relationship built on long-term interests.

Panel I: Exiting Iraq

Tue, 14 Nov 2006 02:00:00 -0500

In the “Exiting Iraq” panel of the Middle East Institute’s 60th Annual Conference, Jay Garner, Brian Katulis, David Satterfield, Qubad Talabani and moderator Bing West discussed various ways to improve the situation in Iraq and to find a comprehensive and successful way out of the current quagmire for US forces. Bing West identified the four major themes that appeared throughout each panelist’s speech: a greater advisory role of US troops, the necessity for regional dialogue, the essential nature of a pro-American Kurdistan and the need to develop contingency plans if the situation continues to degrade.

Don't Count On Gulf Oil Producers to Bail Us Out

Wendy J. Chamberlin and Zubair Iqbal — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 10:08:46 -0500

One of the more alarming characteristics of the global financial meltdown is that –well, it’s global. That makes it very difficult to know where to turn to for help. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown reckoned relief might be found in Riyadh. After returning from Beijing with empty pockets, Pakistani President Asif Zardari has also gone hat-in-hand to the Saudis. There are a number of reasons why troubled economies can’t count on the cash wealthy oil producers in the Gulf for a bailout.

The hard truth is that major oil producing states in the Gulf face liquidity shortages and for the same reasons others do. They are heavily invested in the very Western banks that are in trouble owing, partly, to the sub-prime rate housing collapse in the United States and Europe.

Western economic downturn further negatively impacted the Gulf oil producers because demand for oil is down. The rest of the world simply won’t be buying as much oil as last year. The latest IMF forecasts for the Gulf region show that the combined external current account surplus of the six states in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is expected to fall by at least 7 percentage points of GDP in 2009. This drop effectively wipes out the large bonus from oil sales in 2008 that helped fund ambitious projects in the Gulf.

There are other reasons for caution. Earlier wise decisions of several GCC countries to diversify their economies by building the tourism, real estate, financial services, transportation and other non-oil sectors will help cushion the sharp decline in fiscal surpluses caused by a fall in demand for oil. But these sectors also took a hit with the global downtown.

The slowdown in GCC countries will reverberate negatively throughout the region. Currently, Gulf oil producers assist the developing economies of their neighbors by providing subsidized oil and access to jobs for expatriate labor. Any slowdown will eliminate jobs for the armies of guest workers who now send billions of dollars home to countries like Pakistan, and the Philippines. Those emerging economies have become dependent on the remittances of overseas workers and the slow-down will compound the global recession.

Outlook for major oil producers is manageable. The oil producers, under current expectations; will have comfortable foreign exchange reserves. But if the exchange rates of Gulf currencies remain tied to the appreciating U.S. dollar, the authorities in the GCC countries will find it difficult to tighten monetary policy and may encounter continued high inflationary pressures. Political pressures may also build to increase government expenditures to stimulate domestic growth, and avoid unemployment pressures.

In any case, the current global crisis will make the path toward the planned monetary union by 2010 in the GCC more challenging. This is a shame because coordination of financial policies that will be called for by the monetary union to support a common exchange rate would also help reduce destabilization of cross border capital flows.

What should be done to address the gathering storm? The GCC States could consider three broad initiatives.

First, at the national level, further improving regulation and prudential supervision could strengthen domestic banking sectors. Countries in the GCC have already taken some steps in that direction and this should be applauded. But the current crisis offers the opportunity to push for further restructuring and consolidation of distressed banks in order to minimize domestic contagion. Of course, these steps should be undertaken in concert with similar initiatives at the global level.

Second, at the regional level, a more organized approach should be taken to aiding those distressed economies in neighboring developing economies that are most negatively impacted because of their dependence on economic support from Gulf States -- like Pakistan. Consideration should be given to establishing a trust fund made up of multilateral and regional lending agencies, selected GCC countries, and the G-7 to pool resources and facilitate their effective use by vulnerable counties under IMF/World bank guidance. Regional stability hinges on the lowest common denominator. It is in everybody’s interest to prevent economic implosion in Pakistan. A rescue plan could have the advantage of presenting an opportunity to force countries like Pakistan to come to grips with entrenched structural distortions in its economy.

Finally, at the global level, the cash surplus oil producing countries of the Gulf, although also weakened, can still help the way out of the global crisis. The GCC States should be encouraged to maintain a degree of fiscal expansion so as to stimulate demand in the world economy. Such a policy is not entirely without self-interest. It would have the positive effect of increasing demand for oil exports.